Election Forecasting Assignment and Teaching Resources
Published: Sep 7, 2022
Contributor: Debra Leiter
License: CC BY 4.0 license – Allows all uses and revisions, including commercial use with attribution.
Election forecasting has become a centerpiece of media coverage of elections. Forecasting an election allows students to engage directly with election outcomes and consider models of election behavior. Here, you can find the resources I use to have students produce an election forecast without the need of using complex quantitative methods. Students engage in qualitative assessment of quantitative data and develop their own forecast. This pedagogical approach gives students the hands-on learning they need to understand the intuition behind forecasting and increases their comprehension of models of elections and voting behavior. Here, you can find the assignment, teaching resources, and lecture slides used to help teach the assignment, along with a power point explaining the process. For more information, please see my article in the Journal of Political Science Education “Teaching Forecasting Without Teaching Methods”.
- Student Forecasting Assignment Worksheet Link opens in a new tab.
- Forecasting Assignment Workshop Worked Example Link opens in a new tab.
- Forecasting Lecture Slides Link opens in a new tab.
- Presentation on How to Administer Forecasting Assignment Link opens in a new tab.
- Debra Leiter - Teaching Forecasting Without Teaching Methods - Journal of Political Science Education, 2022 Link opens in a new tab.