Foundations of Quantitative Research in Political Science
- Over the last few years, we have seen mass protests for democratization all over the world. From Hong Kong to Belarus to Northern Africa, citizens went to the streets to demand democratization. Social scientists have long studied what factors make countries more or less likely to become democracies. But, how do we know what countries are democratic and which countries aren't democratic? The definition and measurement of democracy are not trivial. In this video, we will talk about definitions and measurements. And after completing this video, you will be able to distinguish between a variable definition and a measurement, evaluate if a variable definition and measurement are suitable to answer a research question, define a variable and propose a way to measure a variable. Suppose we want to know, are countries with higher levels of education more likely to be democracies? We can't proceed without knowing how to define and measure level of education and democracy. Let's start with the level of education. How do we know if country A is more educated than country B? What information do we need if we want to rank countries from most educated to least educated? It depends on how we define level of education. So, let's say that a country's level of education is defined by the accessibility of basic education to its citizens. If this is how we define level of education, we can measure it by looking at the literacy rate of each country. After all, if we know how many people, what proportion of the population in a given country can read and write, we're pretty close to knowing how accessible basic education is to the people of that country. Now, suppose we want a different definition, suppose we say that a country's level of education is defined by the proficiency of its students in math, reading, and science. If this is how we want to define level of education, we can measure it by looking at the average scores of the country's students, when taking this international standardized test called PISA and PISA is an acronym for Program for International Student Assessment. Now, notice that using PISA scores to measure levels of education will make us rank countries differently than if we use literacy rates. So let's look at the map with the PISA scores according to color. So you see darker colors mean better scores on the PISA test. And let's restrict our attention to three countries. Let's look only at China, Argentina and Brazil. And notice that if we were to rank these three countries according to PISA scores, we would rank China first, Brazil second, and Argentina third. Now, let's look at the literacy rate map. Let's look at the colors, right? Of literacy rates, how they correspond to levels of literacy rate. And look again to those three countries, China, Argentina and Brazil and notice that if we are trying to rank these countries according to literacy rates, we will see that according to literacy rates, we rank Argentina first, China second and Brazil third. This shows us that how we define and measure a variable matters. So given how tricky it can be to define and measure a variable, how do we know which definition and which measurement to use whenever we're doing social science? It depends, remember that we started with the question, are countries with higher levels of education more likely to be democracies? So we must ask, what is it about a country's level of education that could in theory, make it more likely to democratize? Is it a lot of people having access to basic education, so that they can read pamphlets and social media posts by activists in favor of democratization? Or is it students being able to do well in math and reading and science, so that they come out of school better educated and better able to lead opposition parties and social movements, in favor of democratization? And if we say that both things are equally important, then what should we do about it? Should we come up with an index that combines both things, both the literacy rates and the PISA scores? Or should we measure it, define and measure it as something different altogether, than what we have been discussing in this video? All of these choices are ours to make, it's part of our job as social scientists and it's part of what makes our job so important and so exciting. Let's go back to the research question once again. Are countries with higher levels of education more likely to be democracies? A concept that can be even more challenging to define and measure, is the concept of democracy. Social scientists have come up with different ways of defining and measuring democracy. Polity IV, the Freedom House index and V-Dem are a few examples of measurements of democracy and each of these measurements is based on a definition. Measurements of democracy tend to score countries according to different criteria that are considered necessary for a country to be democratic. So these criteria might include, the existence of free and fair elections, freedom of the press and political participation. Now, how to weigh each criteria, what criteria to use, what information to use to assess each of these criteria, all of these are choices that may differ from one measurement of democracy to another. Now, to recap, after completing this video, you're suppose to know how to distinguish between a variable definition and a measurement, to evaluate if a variable definition and measurement are suitable to answer a research question, to define a variable and to propose a way to measure a variable. These are essential skills for conducting social science research.