Foundations of Quantitative Research in Political Science
Quick Recap: Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
- Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. Usually, the process can be completed by utilizing a simple test.
- Statistical inference can be with two variables (bivariate), or more than two variables (multivariate)
Bivariate Hypothesis Test
- A bivariate hypothesis test is a statistical inference with two variables.
- All bivariate tests follow the same initial steps:
- Identify the null and alternative hypotheses
- The null hypothesis represents a situation where there is no relationship between our two variables; the null hypothesis will be rejected if our alternative hypothesis is correct, but it will not be rejected if our hypothesis is incorrect.
- The alternative hypothesis is our own hypothesis which we are trying to prove
- Choose a significance level (how certain do we want our conclusion to be)
- Choose the appropriate hypothesis test: (See the Selecting the Appropriate Hypothesis Test page for more info!)
- Difference of means (t-test)
- Difference of proportions (z-test)
- Bivariate regression
- Correlation coefficient
- Chi-square test
- Calculate test statistic and P-value
- Use the formula associated with the chosen hypothesis test to calculate these
- Interpret the P-value
- Reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than the significance level
- Fail to reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is greater than the significance level
- Identify the null and alternative hypotheses
Limitations of Bivariate Hypothesis testing
- Shows relationship, but not necessarily a cause
- Does not account for confounding variables
- Requires random sample
- Statistical significance is not equal to substantive importance
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