3. Quick Recap: Hypothesis Testing

3. Quick Recap: Hypothesis Testing

Foundations of Quantitative Research in Political Science

Quick Recap: Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing

  • Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. Usually, the process can be completed by utilizing a simple test.
  • Statistical inference can be with two variables (bivariate), or more than two variables (multivariate)

Bivariate Hypothesis Test

  • A bivariate hypothesis test is a statistical inference with two variables.
  • All bivariate tests follow the same initial steps:
    1. Identify the null and alternative hypotheses
      • The null hypothesis represents a situation where there is no relationship between our two variables; the null hypothesis will be rejected if our alternative hypothesis is correct, but it will not be rejected if our hypothesis is incorrect.
      • The alternative hypothesis is our own hypothesis which we are trying to prove
    2. Choose a significance level (how certain do we want our conclusion to be)
    3. Choose the appropriate hypothesis test: (See the Selecting the Appropriate Hypothesis Test page for more info!)
      • Difference of means (t-test)
      • Difference of proportions (z-test)
      • Bivariate regression
      • Correlation coefficient
      • Chi-square test
    4. Calculate test statistic and P-value
      • Use the formula associated with the chosen hypothesis test to calculate these
    5. Interpret the P-value
      • Reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than the significance level
      • Fail to reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is greater than the significance level

Limitations of Bivariate Hypothesis testing

  • Shows relationship, but not necessarily a cause
    • Does not account for confounding variables
  • Requires random sample
  • Statistical significance is not equal to substantive importance

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